A new cartoon created by John
Cook illustrates the failure of climate contrarians to manage global warming
risks
Climate
contrarians want us to bet everything on the best case global warming scenario.
That's a failure of basic risk management. Photograph: Erik De Castro/Reuters
Climate change is fundamentally a
risk management problem. Whether or not you agree with the 97 percent expert
consensus on human-caused global warming, there is an undeniable risk that the
consensus is correct and that we're causing dangerously rapid climate change.
Frequently, climate contrarians
argue against taking action to mitigate that risk by claiming the uncertainties
are too large. One of the most visible figures to make this argument is climate
scientist Judith Curry, who said in 2013,
"I
can't say myself that [doing nothing] isn't the best solution."
This argument represents a
failure to grasp the principles of basic risk management, as illustrated in the
following cartoon.
The climate
contrarian guide to managing risk. Created by John Cook
When it comes to managing risk,
uncertainty is not our friend. Uncertainty means it's possible the outcome will
be better than we expect, but it's also possible it will be much worse than we
expect. In fact, continuing with business-as-usual would only be a reasonable
option in the absolute best case scenario.
Doing nothing is betting the farm
on a very low probability scenario. It's
an incredibly high-risk path that fails to reduce the threats posed by the
worst case or even most likely case scenarios. This is a concept Judith Curry
understood in 2007, when she wrote,
"The
rationale for reducing emissions of carbon dioxide is to reduce the risk of the
possibility of catastrophic outcomes. Making the transition to cleaner fuels
has the added benefit of reducing the impact on public health and ecosystems
and improving energy security ... I have yet to see any option that is worse
than ignoring the risk of global warming and doing nothing."
Judith Curry of 2007 got it
exactly right. Unfortunately she and her fellow climate contrarians no longer
seem to grasp these fundamental principles of risk management.
Failing to mitigate global
warming by significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions is fundamentally
equivalent to continuing to smoke cigarettes, driving without a seat belt, or
refusing to buy homeowner's insurance. Each situation represents the failure to
take action to reduce the risks of a very dangerous outcome.
Even if you personally have
doubts about the 97 percent expert consensus on human-caused global warming and
the threats it represents, there's a good chance you're wrong. You may also
doubt the medical science consensus that smoking causes lung cancer, but acting
on that doubt by continuing to smoke is a risky decision. The difference is
that in the latter case, you're only risking the health of yourself and those
in your proximity. In the case of global warming, you're risking the health of
entire ecosystems and future generations.
From a risk management
perspective, mitigating the undeniable threat of catastrophic climate change is
a no-brainer. So let's stop delaying and denying and get to it.
To
know more from Dyman & Associates Risk Management Projects, See:
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